Bitcoin climbed past $61,400 on Wednesday after taking a major tumble amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, dampening expectations for an October rally.
Analysts now suggest that Bitcoin’s attempt to reclaim its all-time high near $74,000 could take longer than anticipated.
October’s Rocky Start For Bitcoin
Prominent Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo said that Bitcoin’s current market structure indicated bearishness in the mid-term. However, the longer-term outlook remains bearish but is transitioning toward a neutral stance, with potential for bullish momentum in the future.
In his latest tweet, Woo suggests that the much-anticipated all-time high will require more time to reach, as the current short-term structure advises a cooling-off period of 1 to 3 weeks before the next bullish attempt. Woo even went on to express skepticism about a typical “Uptober,” predicting instead a sideways trend throughout October, followed by a more optimistic November and December.
Despite the short-term challenges, Woo maintains a long-term bullish perspective on Bitcoin, highlighting the asset’s appeal and growth potential as the geopolitical crisis escalates.
Bitcoin: Risk-on or Risk-off Asset?
According to a note by Presto Research, yesterday marked the worst start to October for crypto since 2013 as Bitcoin’s price dropped significantly lower after Iran’s attack on Israel. This contrast is interesting, especially since BlackRock has recently promoted BTC as a risk-off asset like gold. The price of the precious metal performed much better.
The key difference in their short-term movements is attributed to their respective maturity phases; gold boasts a rich 5,000-year history as a store of value, leaving little room for incremental network effects.
On the other hand, Bitcoin, with only 15 years of history, is still in the early stages of mainstream adoption, and its narrative is “still poorly understood.”
This provides ample opportunity for significant network effects, as per Presto Research, which makes Bitcoin’s risk profile comparable to that of an internet startup. As a result, BTC functions as a hybrid of both risk-on and risk-off asset, with the risk-on characteristics more apparent in the short term and risk-off potential materializing over the long term.
“A useful reference here is gold’s price volatility in the 1970s. The reopening of the US gold market in 1974, after the private ownership ban since 1933, likely added to its price volatility as the market reassessed gold’s value in a world of floating exchange rates, inflation, and new monetary policies. Its volatility eventually settled to a more stable level from the mid-1980s onward.”
