Tourism Execs in Dubai Talk Global 'Uncertainties' For Travel

Uncertainty was a recurring theme at Thursday’s press conference for the upcoming Arabian Travel Market –  the region’s largest travel show is set to unfold amid growing concerns of a global travel slowdown.

Now in its 32nd edition, ATM organizers expect a record 55,000 attendees will pack into the halls of Dubai World Trade Center over four days next week.

But global recession risks have been rising, and Skift Research now forecasts 2% to 5% travel industry growth in 2025, down from its forecast at the start of the year for 6% to 9% growth.

Asked by Skift whether Dubai would be immune to a travel slowdown, Dubai Tourism CEO Issam Kazim said at the conference: “I’m confident we’ll be able to ride this wave.”

Dubai’s tourism numbers have increased every year since records began in 1990 — except from 2020 to 2022.

“Obviously, we know today we [Dubai] are a global community, everyone is interconnected to a certain degree, where any changes happening impact the entire world,” added Kazim. “Travel trade has always been part of that, and it tends to get impacted.”

“However, I’m confident that the way things have been established in Dubai, and the track record we have, and the role that Dubai plays on a global map, I think Dubai is very well positioned to be able to ride this wave.”

Industry leaders on stage gave more cautious answers. IHG’s managing director for MEA & South West Asia, Haitham Mattar, said: “We’re currently in a period of adjustment globally, and everyone is assessing the impact of those various announcements we’ve heard. It’s too early to say what those impacts will look like. What is clear is the uncertainty.”

Mattar added: “In the meantime, we reflect on the global market, but certainly, what Issam just said gives us greater confidence about what Dubai has proposed.”

IHG is one of Dubai’s largest and longest-standing operators, with 27 hotels in the city.

‘Too Early’ to Sense a Drop in U.S. Visits

Emirates Airline deputy president Adnan Kazim, also present at the conference, agreed there are “uncertainties” but said that the carrier is well-placed to continue growth.

He said: “Aviation as a business has gone through many of these disruptions in the past, including geopolitical instabilities. To be honest, we’ve gone through all of them, and from the [financial] results we’ll be announcing sometime in May, it gives an indication that we can always maneuver through uncertainties.”

Adnan Kazim was the only one to use the word “recession” at the conference, but only to say how strong Emirates is right now.

“The outlook is looking better this year than last year overall. That gives an indication that people will carry on despite recessions. People aren’t compromising on travel,” he said.

Pressed by the media in the audience on any U.S.-specific impact for Emirates, Adnan Kazim said it’s too early to tell.

“As far as the impact on U.S. flow, I can say that our numbers still reflect solid bookings between Dubai and the U.S. We haven’t seen a dip, it’s too early to speak on that. There is too much unknown around tariffs and visas, too much yet to be seen. From the evidence we do have, we’re not seeing an impact.”

What Might Change in Dubai?

Tourism from the Americas is small in comparison to Dubai’s other markets. In fact, it’s the third-smallest geography behind Australasia and Africa, accounting for 7% of visits in 2024, or 1.27 million, according to official data. Dubai Tourism does not publish data on visits from specific countries, rather, it groups them into geographies.

Dubai is not as dependent on the U.S. as it is on Western Europe or India. But, as Dubai’s 2009 housing crisis showed, the city is not immune to recessions either.

Skift Research’s 2025 Recession Alert Report highlighted India and the Middle East as the markets “where the fundamentals are just so strong that they should be able to power through a period of challenging growth.”

Moreover, the report suggested a smaller impact on luxury travelers. With the average price of a hotel room in Dubai last year being $146 a night, the city is often seen as a luxury destination.

One potential shift Issam Kazim mentioned during the conference was that the length of stay in Dubai might decrease.

“I think some markets will be impacted more than others,” said Kazim. “But the crucial role travel plays in conducting business, and in terms of people at least being able to take shorter breaks, or fewer breaks but spend longer, those would be the segments we need to focus on.”

Dubai Tourism saw its length of stay inch down from 3.8 nights average to 3.7 nights last year, according to official data.

Recession fears may have emerged in April, but according to Kazim, the emirate posted growth through the end of March.

“So far, the first quarter of 2025, we are 3% ahead, so we have to perform better and better. I think yes, there are a lot of changes happening globally, but with the diversified marketing approach we’ve designed for ourselves, it gives us a chance to shift our focus as and when needed to ensure the overall growth continues to be seen.”