Has Nvidia Stock Topped? A Single Metric Offers a Very Clear Answer.


Roughly 30 years ago, the advent of the internet changed the growth trajectory for businesses across the globe. Although it took a few years for the internet to mature as a technology and for businesses to fully understand how to harness its potential, it’s had a notably positive impact on long-term growth trends.

Since the mid-1990s, Wall Street has been waiting patiently for the next leap forward for corporate America. Over the last two years, artificial intelligence (AI) appears to have answered the call.

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A humanoid face emerging from a sea of pixels and circuitry, which is representative of artificial intelligence.
Image source: Getty Images.

AI-driven software and systems have the ability to become more proficient at their assigned tasks, as well as learn new skill sets without human intervention. This capacity to learn and evolve over time is what gives this technology seemingly limitless potential and utility in most industries around the globe.

While the AI ecosystem is vast, which should allow numerous businesses to thrive, no company been a more direct beneficiary of the rise of AI than cutting-edge semiconductor stock Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). Since 2023 began, Nvidia’s market value skyrocketed from $360 billion to north of $3.6 trillion, which makes it the largest publicly traded company, as of this writing.

Less than two years ago, when Nvidia lifted the hood on fiscal 2023 (Nvidia’s fiscal year ends in late January), the company reported $27 billion in full-year sales. In the current fiscal year (2025), it’s pacing closer to $129 billion in full-year revenue, with Wall Street calling for almost $192 billion in sales next year.

This otherworldly growth is a function Nvidia’s AI-graphics processing units (GPUs) being the preferred choice for businesses running high-compute data centers. The analysts at TechInsights pegged Nvidia’s share of GPU shipments to data centers at 98% in 2022 and 2023. Based on the company’s two-year sales ramp, it’d be a fair assumption that Nvidia’s H100 GPU (commonly known as the “Hopper”) and successor Blackwell GPU architecture aren’t having any issues finding buyers.

Nvidia has also been able to take advantage of the law of supply and demand. With orders for the Hopper and next-generation Blackwell chip backlogged, it’s been able to meaningfully increase the price for its hardware. The roughly $30,000 to $40,000 price tag for the Hopper represents a 100% to 300% premium to what Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) is netting for its MI300X chips for AI-accelerated data centers.



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