Global light vehicle sales forecast – March 2024 edition


Automotive World’s monthly global light vehicle sales forecast provides a snapshot of past and future sales volumes broken down by region

Global light vehicle sales snapshot

The major economic forecasters have been making upward revisions to their outlooks for 2024. In March Fitch Ratings increased its forecast for global GDP growth in 2024 by 0.3pts (from December status) to 2.4% and The Conference Board raised its forecast by 0.2pts (from February status) to 3%. Earlier the IMF raised its forecast by 0.2pts to 3.1%.

Reflecting/contributing to the improving outlook, during February 2024 most of the top LV markets showed a year-on-year increase, though three of the Top-16 (China, Japan, and South Korea) saw declines.

The decrease in China (PC only and domestically produced only) was expected, due to the timing of the Lunar new year. In Japan much of the decline was linked to the certification scandal. At the other end of the scale, sales in Russia grew by over 80% as the market continues to be distorted by the effects of the war in Ukraine. Among other markets, a majority saw double-digit growth rates, and this holds true for the year-to-date picture.

Reflecting this early strength of demand, our overall forecast for global demand in 2024 has been increased by 0.3pts from prior status, continuing to anticipate further growth but at a significantly slower pace than 2023 as the pent-up demand has now been met.

Global light vehicle sales update

Light Vehicle sales (000s) 2021 2022 2023 2024(f) Change -v- prior year Change -v- prior status (pts) Notes
China 24,605.1 23,367.3 24,481.8 25,338.0 3.5% 0.3 Factory output and retail sales beat expectations in Jan-Feb. Consumer confidence in Feb improved; First time for six months. However, business confidence slipped.
N. America (US & Canada) 16,720.1 15,380.4 17,041.5 17,752.0 4.2% 0.1 Consumer confidence high. Demand helped by price competition and incentives but constrained by high interest rates for loans.
EU+EFTA+UK 13,798.0 12,937.0 14,838.7 15,274.0 2.9% 0.3 Sales growth slowing but still positive in 2024. LCVs out-performing.
S. America 4,652.0 4,833.0 5,161.6 5,360.0 3.8% 0.8 30% rise in Brazil in Feb.
India 3,357.3 3,929.3 4,212.2 4,302.0 2.1% 0.5 Growth underpinned by new product launches and stable market sentiment.
Japan 4,361.5 4,121.4 4,632.8 4,730.0 2.1% 0.0 Demand down 16% Jan-Feb, but consumer and business confidence remains high, particularly willingness to buy durable goods.
Asean 2,455.0 2,794.0 2,824.7 2,875.0 1.8% 0.0 GDP in most countries expected to rise at faster rate than 2023, but LV demand generally weaker in first two months.
Middle East 2,408.4 2,451.8 2,640.6 2,624.1 -0.6% 0.7 Double-digit decline expected in Turkey (regional leader) after two strong years.
RoW 7,827.5 7,025.7 7,362.9 7,427.8 0.9% 0.0
Total 80,185.0 76,839.9 83,196.9 85,682.9 3.0% 0.3
Change -4.2% 8.3% 3.0%  

LV Sales, Top-5 markets: Feb-24 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

global light vehicle sales forecast march 2024 chart 1

LV Sales, Top-5 markets: YTD Feb 2024 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

global light vehicle sales forecast march 2024 chart 2
LV Sales, Next-11 markets: Feb 24 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)
global light vehicle sales forecast march 2024 chart 3

LV Sales, Next-11 markets: YTD Feb 24 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

global light vehicle sales forecast march 2024 chart 4

Top-16 markets, change in LV Sales: Feb-24 -v- yr ago (%)

global light vehicle sales forecast march 2024 chart 5

Top-16 markets, change in LV Sales: YTD Feb-24 -v- yr ago (%)

global light vehicle sales forecast march 2024 chart 6

Top-16 markets, change in LV Sales: Feb-24 -v- yr ago (000 units)

global light vehicle sales forecast march 2024 chart 7

Top-16 markets, change in LV Sales: YTD Feb-24 -v- yr ago (000 units)

global light vehicle sales forecast march 2024 chart 8



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