Costco earnings preview: Another quarter of sales growth expected after membership fee hike


Costco (COST) is expected to report another bulk-sized quarter.

The wholesale giant will report its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday after market close. Per Bloomberg consensus estimates, Wall Street expects revenue to grow 1.29% to $79.96 billion and earnings per share to increase 12.2% year over year to $5.69.

“In the recent mixed discretionary backdrop, we believe Costco’s merchandising efforts, including an attractive assortment of discounted gift cards, have contributed to a meaningful improvement in non-foods category trends lately,” Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh wrote in a note to clients.

Costco’s same-store sales are expected to increase 6.4%, while e-commerce is expected to jump 19.63%.

UBS analyst Michael Lasser wrote that the company is “clearly gaining market share” with consistent traffic growth and a “faster recovery in general merchandise” sales than its competition.

In August, Costco’s foot traffic jumped 10.5%, per data analytics firm Placer.ai. The superstores and wholesale club sector saw a 4.9% increase in foot traffic.

Another tailwind for Costco: its first membership fee increase since June 2017.

Effective Sept. 1, Costco’s Gold Star membership was hiked $5 to $65 while the Executive membership increased $10 to $130.

Read more: How to save on travel with a Costco credit card

The change is expected to impact around 52 million memberships, a little over half of which are Executive memberships. It’s expected to grow membership fee income by high single to low double digits.

For Q4, Wall Street expects membership fees to come in at $1.54 billion.

Here’s what Costco is expected to report in its Q4 earnings report, per Bloomberg consensus, compared to the same quarter the year prior.

Net sales: $79.96 billion, compared to $78.94 billion

Adjusted earnings per share: $5.07, compared to $4.86

Total company comparable sales growth, excluding fuel: 6.40%, compared to 3.80%

  • US same-store sales growth: 5.96%, versus 3.10%

  • Canada same-store sales growth: 7.35%, versus 7.40%

  • Other international sales growth: 8.62%, versus 4.40%

E-commerce growth: 19.63%, versus a decline of 0.60%

Membership fees revenue: $1.54 billion versus $1.51 billion

StockStory aims to help individual investors beat the market.StockStory aims to help individual investors beat the market.

StockStory aims to help individual investors beat the market.

Brooke DiPalma is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.

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