The roadmap for autonomous vehicle (AV) deployment is continuously being dialled back as technology perfection, capital investment, consumer acceptance, and regulatory hurdles prove more challenging than originally expected. McKinsey’s global executive survey on autonomous driving, published in January 2024, estimates that the adoption timeline has slipped by two to three years on average across all autonomy levels compared to its 2021 survey. Under the most recent estimates, fully autonomous trucking is expected to reach largescale viability between 2028 and 2031, with a 2030 date for SAE Level 4 robotaxis.
