From just shy of $98,000 last Friday, the Bitcoin (BTC) price rolled over to hit support at $94,000 on Sunday. Will the price continue to fall, or, with a higher low in place, is a new upside wave taking place that could breach $100,000?
Aside from the ever-present market nervousness over the Trump tariffs, and the potential for market skittishness when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell makes his speech after the FOMC meeting this Wednesday, things are relatively calm.
90 days to complete trade talks unrealistic?
Many talks aimed at new trade agreements are currently taking place between US officials and their counterparts. While the Trump administration has stated its goal of “90 deals in 90 days”, this does appear to be unrealistic based on an average of 1.5 years from launch to signing of previous Free Trade Agreements, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).
That said, if President Trump’s teams are able to pull off some quick deals within this time frame, these would then probably be announced towards the end of this Summer, possibly leading to a surge in the stock market, assuming that an economic crash does not occur in the intervening period.
Markets for stocks and equities are generally believed to have a price horizon from 6 months to 18 months into the future, with 12 months being a general average. With the stock market currently rallying, it will be interesting to see if this continues, giving a signal that the market believes the deals will be done.
$BTC fake-out rally
Source: TradingView
As can be seen in the 4-hour chart above, the rally up to nearly $98,000 eventually resulted in a fake-out. Once the rally ran out of steam, the price rolled over and the top of the ascending triangle was not able to hold it. The price fell through and hit the redrawn bottom trend line of the triangle.
The good news is that it has bounced from there, and should it hold the current resistance/support level, it is likely to break out again. The Stochastic RSI at the bottom of the chart is signalling a cross back up, and this is the case for the 8-hour and 12-hour Stochastic RSIs as well. Upside price momentum is arriving again.
$BTC price returns to confirm support
Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that this latest correction was probably needed. It wasn’t healthy for the price to continue straight up, and so this return to confirm the $94,000 horizontal support level (orange line) is absolutely fine. As long as the bounce does take place from here, a higher low will have been made and the uptrend can continue.
The next target would be the higher high at $99,500 (blue line). If this level can be taken out, and $BTC can confirm above, there won’t be too much in the form of resistance before the all-important $106,000 level.
$94,000 must be held as support
Source: TradingView
In the weekly time frame it’s quite straightforward. Bitcoin needs to hold the $94,000 horizontal support level. In favour of the bears, the last weekly candle did close beneath, and a reasonably sized wick was left behind. The current price action needs to see a confirmation above this level in order to help cancel this last bearish candle out.
The Stochastic RSI has the indicators still rising nicely. This price momentum has to push $BTC up above the all-time high before the indicators hit the top and come back down again. Otherwise this would be a failed rally.
Things do look good for the bulls up to now, but if the price does start to falter, perhaps for more than a week or two, predictions would have to be revisited.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.